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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-11T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30719/-1
CME Note: Ear-shaped bright partial halo CME with a very complex shape brighter bulk and a fainter somewhat asymmetric full halo shock. The CME is associated with the X5.8 flare and a significant eruption (massive dimming) and EUV wave seen in SDO 193. It is possible that this CME arrived at L1 2024-05-12T08:55Z, although it is more likely that the 2024-05-10T07:12Z CME is responsible for the 2024-05-12T08:55Z arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-13T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:T2024-05-11 04:33
Radial velocity (km/s):1189
Longitude (deg):46
Latitude (deg):-1
Half-angular width (deg):48

Notes:X5.8 flare/CME AR3664(S20W47) westward CME with considerable expansion and 100MeV proton event.

Lead Time: 54.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-05-11T06:38Z

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